(Washington) The United States crossed the bar early Thursday afternoon 15 000 deaths related to the new coronavirus pandemic, according to the count of the American university Johns Hopkins. However, the situation improved in New York hospitals on Thursday, a sign that the COVID pandemic – 19 may be turning a corner in the United States.
Ivan COURONNE with Catherine TRIOMPHE in New York
France Media Agency
The epidemic had at least 15 938 dead in the country at 15 h Thursday, according to the continuously updated figures from the university, which refer.
According to this same source, the country had more than 450 000 case of COVID – 19 officially listed, a figure much lower than the true number of infected people, due to the lack of available tests.
The United States is the second most bereaved country in the world, ahead of Spain (15 238 dead) and behind Italy (18 279).
The last two changes calculated on 24 hours, Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, each time reported an increase of almost 2000 dead.
New York State, epicenter of the pandemic in the country, is the most bereaved, with more than 7000 dead.
Best location in New York
The situation improved in New York on Thursday, but the authorities warn that a return to normalcy is not imminent, the country remaining vulnerable to a second wave of coronavirus.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a new record for the number of deaths in his state, 799 in 24 hours, almost as much as whole countries like Italy or Spain at worst of their epidemics.
But these dead are yesterday's patients. Conversely, never have so few new patients been hospitalized and admitted to intensive care since the beginning of the crisis: less than 100 in statewide intensive care in recent 24 hours . This should mechanically “flatten” the curve of the dead in the coming weeks.
Shortages of hospital beds predicted by various models have been avoided, Andrew Cuomo said, but reiterated that the war was not over.
“We have not gone out of business,” said the governor.
There will be no abrupt lifting of the containment decreed there 18 days. His state will change from red to orange and not directly to green, he said. Millions of workers and workers will need to be tested first to decide who has had the coronavirus and is immune, but testing capacity is not yet to scale.
Eyes are also turned to New Jersey, Louisiana or Michigan, where the virus has killed thousands of people.
President Donald Trump is however in a hurry to reopen the country and restart a disaster economy. Its secretary of the Treasury judged Thursday that businesses could probably “restart” in May.
But the country will have to be patient, hammer experts and public officials, and the population will permanently change its habits as long as there is no vaccine, in order to prepare to respond to a second wave – since the coronavirus will not have disappeared.
The United States, big as a continent, is not hit with the same intensity everywhere. The city of Washington, 350 km south of New York, has so far been relatively spared, for example. The model used by the capital's authorities predicts a peak … only at the very end of June.
The most cited model (IHME), which takes into account how the epidemic has evolved in China and Europe, has in recent days been revised down several times the estimated balance sheet of the first wave in the United States : from 93 000 at 82 000 then at 60 000 death.
The American “peak” would be reached this weekend, according to this model used in particular at the White House, but considered too optimistic by certain States, which prefer to marry several models, in the manner of weather forecasts, none model not being perfect.
“It's thanks to the Americans who do a good job. Social distancing, etc. Go on! Tweeted Donald Trump.
When is the deconfinement? Not before June, the mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, warned on Thursday.
It will be gradual and regional, said Anthony Fauci, director of the US Institute of Infectious Diseases, a member of the White House task force that advises Donald Trump on the epidemic.
Firstly because the containment orders were decreed State by State, by the governors, and not nationally by the president, who only issued instructions on distance and telework until 30 April.
But also, and above all, because there are pockets where the number of new cases still doubles every two days.
While California, for example, after fearing the worst, has been reassured enough to start donating respirators and medical equipment to other states. Washington State, which registered the first case of COVID – 19 21 January, closed the temporary hospital on Wednesday that the army had installed, so that other states can benefit from it.
Rather than a return to life before, one must prepare for a “new normal,” say experts.
“As long as most people do not have immunity, resuming our normal activities will quickly restart the contagions,” wrote Tom Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). ).
It offers conditions for any deconfinement: widely available screening tests; plans to isolate the sick, and trace and quarantine their contacts; and a general upgrade of hospitals to absorb any future wave.
“We will have to reopen the tap gradually rather than opening the valves all at once and risking an explosion of new cases,” he wrote on Think Global Health.
Restaurants may have to reopen with a limited number of tables, schools may not all reopen at the same time.
Americans may be able to take vacations this summer, said Anthony Fauci, on CBS, but on condition that social distancing continues. He even suggests, half seriously, that the Americans give up the practice of shaking hands.